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January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside (to say the least), at . On the back of , the economy seems to be continuing to grow apace.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating benchmark revision (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 2/1 and December 2023 NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of 2/1 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, , Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.More By This Author:Business Cycle Indicators On The Eve Of The January Employment Situation Release Probability of Recession: Term Spread Vs. Term Spread, DSR, Foreign Term SpreadSentiment, Confidence, News: January 2024
Business Cycle Indicators At The Beginning Of February 2024
