U.S. equity futures are little changed as European and Asian shares retreated, led by sliding bank stocks and a drop in the dollar as doubts over republican tax cuts and ongoing bond curve flattening hurt sentiment and prompted fresh questions over the viability of the US expansion.
Investor concerns also returned to geopolitics as Trump continued his tour of Asia with a mission of rallying the world to stand up to the North Korean threat. Calling out by name Russia and China, he said Wednesday that all responsible nations must join forces to deny Kim Jong Un’s regime any form of support. As Bloomberg reports, Trump is also expected to discuss trade with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. But the biggest overnight catalyst was a renewed fear about the fate of GOP tax cuts, as fresh doubts emerged about tax reform progress after the Washington Post reported Senate Republican leaders were considering holding cuts back by a year, while they are also said to be considering repealing deductions for state and local taxes.
Derek Halpenny, head of research at Mitsubishi UFJ in London told Reuters he was dubious over the progress of the tax cuts program being urged by U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign. “The initial phases of discussions within the House (of Representatives) have brought up a lot of divisions and problems … If the story is true that they’re considering a delay of one year to the corporate tax cut, those big differences will need to be sorted,†he said. Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Prime Partners, said the doubts over the tax issue reinforce the case for some consolidation in the market, which has been fully priced for good news. “It’s something that would impact the domestic stocks in the U.S. and would be a setback for the market in general (and) it’s more than stock specific as people would reassess earnings growth expectations to the downside,†he said.
In addition to hitting the dollar, tax fears also led to renewed flattening in the yield curve, which sent Goldman shares 1.5% lower and weighed the most on the main stock index. The 2s10s curve dropped below 69bps and has now flattened for 8 sessions in a row which is the longest run since November 2015. The 5s30s curve also fell below 79bps and both are at 10 year lows. Clearly rates markets are saying something about the prospect of the tax bill as it stands so it’ll be interesting to see if that changes when we see the Senate version.Ongoing flattening, which precedes an inversion, also implies that investors are expecting a slowdown if not recession.
European bonds were also snared by yield curve flattening, with yields on long-term German bonds falling to two-month lows on Wednesday.
In European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined, with banks underperforming following disappointing results from Credit Agricole SA. European banking stocks were the worst performing sector as share indexes across the continent opened lower, following a poor session for U.S. banks. The two main European banking indices suffered the most, falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, dragging an index of pan-European stocks lower 0.2%.
Elsewhere, in a largely risk-off session seen through the European periphery without a clear catalyst, Spanish bonds led a sell-off, with the 10Y Spain underperforming Italy by 2.5bps as large block trade sent bund futures to session high. European equity markets mirror peripheral underperformance, with smaller Italian banks particularly weak, while Credit Agricole slumped -4.5% after a poor earnings report. The retail sector was supported by Marks & Spencer (+0.9%) after positive trading numbers. In the U.K., Prime Minister Theresa May was weighing whether to fire a member of her cabinet only seven days after her defense secretary quit in a sexual harassment scandal.
Earlier, Asian shares wrung out another decade peak as data showed China’s demand for imports remained buoyant, pushing the MSCI world equity index to a fresh high. Beijing reported imports in October rose 17.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 16%, but export growth was just under estimates at 6.9%.Some more from Goldman on China’s trade numbers:
October exports and imports growth moderate, in line with consensus
Exports growth for China moderated to 6.9% yoy in October from 8.1% yoy in September, and import growth also slowed to 17.2% yoy from 18.6% yoy in September. Both readings are in line with consensus. The moderation in year-on-year growth may be partially due to the mid-autumn festival distortion, though probably to a lesser extent compared to those seen in Korea and Taiwan data. In sequential terms, exports fell 0.1% mom sa non-annualized, down from a modest increase of 0.2% in September. Imports increased by 0.3% mom sa non-annualized, moderating from 2.5% in September. The trade surplus increased to US$38.2bn from US$28.6bn in September.
For exports to major destinations, growth of exports to the EU and Japan improved to 11.4% yoy and 5.7% yoy, from 10.4% yoy and 0% yoy in September, respectively, while that to the US and ASEAN moderated to 8.3% yoy and 10.1% from 13.8% yoy and 10.7% in September.
For commodity imports, the imports growth decelerated both in volume and value terms. Specifically, in volume terms, iron ore imports fell 1.6% yoy, vs. +10.6% yoy in September; crude oil imports grew 7.8% yoy, vs. 11.9% yoy in September; steel products imports contracted 12.0% yoy, vs. +9.7% yoy in September. In value terms, iron ore imports decelerated to 16.9% yoy from 30.2% yoy in September; crude oil imports grew 29.1% yoy, vs. 29.4% yoy in September; steel products imports decelerated to 9.3% yoy, from 28.6% yoy in September.
An index of Asian stocks held steady at a decade high following the WaPo report that Senate Republicans are considering a one year delay in the implementation of a corporate-tax cut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% to 171.76 at 4:28 p.m. in Hong Kong after earlier rising to its highest since 2007 for a second day following little change in U.S. stocks on Tuesday. Consumer discretionary stocks including Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. gained, while energy companies dropped. The regional benchmark has to add less than a point to set a new record.
