AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 30-Feb. 3

AUD/USD posted modest losses last week, as the pair closed at 0.7520. There are 9 events on the calendar this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

US GDP dipped to 1.9% in Q4, weaker than the previous quarter but close to the estimate of 2.1%. Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales both missed expectations, but consumer confidence moved slightly higher, beating the forecast. Down Under, Australian CPI dipped to 0.5% in Q4, short of the estimate of 0.7%.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speech: Monday, 7:45. Debelle will deliver remarks at an event in Sydney. The markets will be looking for clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy.
2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The indicator edged up to 5 points in November, indicative of increased optimism in the business sector. Will the upswing continue in the December report?
3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Tuesday, 22:30. The manufacturing indicator has been steady, posting two straight gains of 0.5%. An identical gain is expected in the upcoming release.
4. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:00. Key Chinese indicators can have a significant impact on AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. In December, the index edged lower to 51.4, within expectations. The January estimate stands at 51.2.
5. Commodity Prices: Wednesday, 5:30. The indicator continues to post strong gains. In December, the indicator jumped 45.5%, up from 32.1% a month earlier. Will the upward trend continue in January?
6. Building Approvals: Thursday, 00:30. Building Approvals is often marked by sharp fluctuations, making accurate predictions a tricky task. In November, the indicator rebounded with a sharp gain of 7.0%, after three straight declines. The estimate for December is -1.7%.
7. Trade Balance: Thursday, 00:30. Australia’s trade surplus improved in November, with a surplus of A$1.24 billion. This easily beat the forecast of a deficit of A$-0.55 billion. The surplus is expected to widen in December, with a forecast of A$2.00 billion.
8. AIG Services Index: Thursday, 22:30. The index jumped to 5.7.7 in December, pointing to considerable expansion in the services sector. Will the upswing continue in January?
9. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. The index rose to 51.9 points in December, above the forecast of 50.9. Little change is expected in January, with an estimate of 51.8.