Election day is today and everything is ready. Here is our full guide, video guide, and all the updates. And here is the view from NAB:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
AUD/USD may now be very fairly valued on our new metrics, but is subject to greater downside than upside risks out of Tuesday’s US presidential election results (the results of which may be known as early as 3pm AEDST if the 2008 and 2012 elections are any guide).
On a Clinton victory, we expect risk sentiment across global markets will be boosted. While this means a fall-back in the likes of the VIX from currently quite elevated levels, the US dollar is likely to be broadly bid as markets move to more confidently pricing in December Fed tightening.
In the event of a Trump win, global risk sentiment is likely to nose-dive. A spike in risk aversion would likely override pricing out of Fed rate hike expectations to pull AUD down.
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