The Yardi Matrix/Rent Cafe expects apartment construction to decline in 2018 for the first time since 2011.
The Rent Cafe reports Apartment Construction Is Expected to Slow Down in 2018 After a 6-Year Upward Streak
Following an almost decade-long period of vigorous expansion, the growth of the U.S. renter population has reached a plateau in 2016. Construction had continued to break records – until this year, when Yardi Matrix market data suggests that the total number of new completions is going to remain far below the 300K mark.
Compared to 2017 when the number of new deliveries reached an all-time high mark in the last 20 years, 2018 will see about 34,900 less deliveries ready to hit the market. The amount of new construction has followed a fast-ascending trend in the past 6 years, but the trend is estimated to change course this year. 2017 deliveries represented a new post-recession high, although actual apartment deliveries last year came short of initial estimates in many metros, due to increased construction costs and qualified labor shortage. As the market is approaching a saturation point, 2018 may mark the start of a construction cooldown for the next few years.
Three-Year Totals
Apartment construction has last peaked at 933K deliveries between 1983-1985 and is forecasted to reach an astonishing number of 910K deliveries by the end of 2018, the closest it’s come to that record-breaking performance ever since.
Rents Still Increasing
The national average rent has already seen a 2.3% increase during the first six months of this year, and whether or not it will outpace 2017’s 3.5% uptick by the end of the year is up to the market’s reaction time, as the slightly narrower pipeline has the potential to blow even that little wind out of the sails of renters. One thing’s for certain: the number of renters has been on the increase in the past years, and it’s unlikely to start decreasing as long as home prices are shooting up faster than rents.
