Another Summer Of European (And The UK) Uncertainty

The UK referendum vote stunned the world! In what seemed like a clear victory for Camp Remain, the markets were shocked to see the EU referendum vote win with the Camp Leave voting 51.90%. The outcome of the referendum has indeed upset the status quo in a Eurozone that has often seen countries squabble over a myriad of things: be it the Greece debt crisis or the Syrian migrant crisis. What follows next is obvious. Another summer and perhaps autumn of uncertainty, this time with the European and the UK economies at stake, to a certain extent the global economies as well.

Image via © European Union 2016 – European Parliament

It seems like ages ago, but it was only last year, January – August 2015 that the political drama quickly steamrolled into what was then termed as a ‘Grexit,’ putting Greece on the brink of an exit from the European Union.  But back then the uncertainty was largely contained.

Market Closing Prices, 24th Jun 2016

The Brexit referendum, on the other hand, has kind of opened Pandora’s Box with larger implications, reaching as far as Washington and Tokyo. By Friday’s close, the global markets plunged and more is likely to follow in the coming week.

Brexit, 2016 “Dark clouds of uncertainty still linger”

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD – 2016 Timeline

The Brexit narrative finds a starkly similar story line, with the exception of the debt crisis of course. The markets are still in uncharted territory, and the EU leaders from Germany, France and Italy along with other EU members (27) meet on Monday. While the now famous, Article 50 has not yet been triggered, the UK had its fair share of political drama as well. PM David Cameron resigned hours after the Brexit verdict was delivered. The ‘Camp Leave’ most famous face, Boris Johnson urged not to rush into the legal proceedings, while the UK is likely to sit on the fence until a new Prime Minister is elected. While the UK leaders took a more calm approach to the referendum, some EU leaders were quick to set the ball rolling calling to put an end to the uncertainty.

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