Data/Event Risks
- USD: Thanksgiving Day holiday – as such, trading conditions will be lighter than usual. Some dollar longs took profits yesterday. Focus next week will return to fiscal cliff discussions.
- GBP: Only CBI Trends up for release today. Otherwise, keep attuned to scatter-gossip re how Whitehall discussions on Autumn Budget Statement are progressing.
- EUR: French preliminary manufacturing and services PMI today, as well as actual German and EC PMI. Focus though will remain on how Europe bridges differences with IMF over Greece.
Idea of the Day
Unlikely to see big moves in the next couple of days. Next week will be more active, with Europe pre-occupied by Greece, America by the fiscal cliff and the Israeli-Gaza conflict, and Japan by its election. Right now, politics as much a driver of forex direction as economics.
Latest FX News
- EUR: Some euro short-covering yesterday and overnight ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday. Soothing words from Merkel and Schaeuble also helped yesterday. The outcome of Monday’s meeting of the troika re Greece remains an important determinant of near-term direction.
- USD: Retained a bid tone in the morning before some profit-taking in the afternoon. As long as fiscal cliff is resolved, dollar ought to retain its allure.
- JPY: Still out of friends, with losses against all of the other majors yesterday. No need to fight the tape just yet, although yen weakness becoming consensus.
- AUD: Aided overnight by a decent print on the China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, although the upside push ran out of puff above 1.04. We may well see the bears have a pop at dragging the Aussie lower next week, as recent attempts to rally have generally faltered. RBA on top makes it tough for the bulls.
