Alasdair Macleod does make an interesting point, although I’d be inclined to say that modelling does has someuse. Modelling also has limits too and most times the limits get ignored and the whole thing turns into junk. He nails it when considering what a pro-Brexit model would have prompted politicians to do. These statists (Osborne and Cameron) don’t want to leave the EU. They’re globalists. If they have to use fear, they’ll use it. If the models are on their side, the models are golden. If the models don’t make their case, the models are junk and the model designers are fools.
MacLeod properly points out that none of the EU states can really stand on their own. Even Germany, the prime producer needs the trade freedom to move its goods around the rest of the Union. I’d argue that a post-EU Germany would stand on its own after some short-term pain while new trade routes were sought. Great Britain might be second on the list of those who could stand with some adjustment. This is the biggest reason the establishment wants a ‘Remain’ vote Thursday. If England goes, the EU crumbles or at a minimum needs another embarrassing and costly bailout.
The question this article prompts is: Should fear of a banking crisis be reason enough for a ‘REMAIN’ vote? In this analyst’s mind, not a chance.
In conclusion, little has changed. It is all about perception and making perception reality. This will be the theme of the week as the establishment begins the last push to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. END
Brexit is not the most important problem facing markets, it is mounting problems in the European banks.
But before looking at that systemic issue, I will summarise the Brexit position, from the trenches, in the last few days before the referendum.
