In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. We looked at a few of these charts in today’s Weekly Strategy Webinar and heading into the start of the week, here are the key levels to consider.
EUR/USDÂ Weekly
Notes: Euro turned from confluence resistance highlighted last month at 1.2042/80 with the pullback rebounding off the 50-line / August 2015 swing high at 1.1714 last week. Things get a bit tricky from here – IF the pair is heading back towards the upper parallel at 1.2167, price should stabilize above these lows. A break below 1.1616 would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario targeting key support & broader bullish invalidation at 1.1366-1.1423.
Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a break of the monthly opening range (1.1670-1.1880) which has taken shape just above confluence support.
GBP/USDÂ Weekly
Notes: It’s been a wild ride in Cable with the pair reversing sharply off the 2016 high-week close at 1.3675(high registered at 1.3658) before rebounding off the lower median-line parallel last week.
Bottom line: The pair remains constructive while above the July high-week reversal close at 1.3036. Look for a breach above the high-week close at 1.3494 to validate resumption of the broader up-trend targeting 1.3675 & the upper parallels.
USD/CAD Weekly Chart
Notes:USD/CAD turned just ahead of confluence support at 1.2048 last month (low registered at 1.2061) with the rally now testing the 2012 trendline support as resistance. I’m inclined to look lower from here but a firm close below the median-line / monthly opening-range low at 1.2433 would be needed to validate resumption of the broader downtrend.
Bottom line: IF the break below multi-year trendline support (red) was legit, price should hold these highs. A topside break risks a rally up towards the 50-line which converges on the 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1.2927.
