Central Banks as Speculators
The longer the world lives with its funny money, the funnier things get. Here’s a headline from yesterday’s Financial Times: “Central banks pour money into equities.â€
We paused. We collected our thoughts. And we wondered: What the hell? From the FT: “A cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets.â€
That was the conclusion of a central bank research and advisory group called the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), which goes on to warn that this trend “could potentially contribute to overheated asset prices.â€
The OMFIF says “global public investors†have increased investments in equities “by at least $1 trillion in recent years.†Although it doesn’t say how that figure is split between central banks and other public sector investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds.
The number could go much, much higher. The OMFIF says “central banks around the world, including China’s, have shifted decisively into investing in equities as low interest rates have hit their revenues.â€
Ironically, the shift by central banks into stocks is been driven by the ultra low bond-yield environment central banks have created. The OMFIF calculates that central banks around the world have lost out on $200 billion to $250 billion in interest income on their bond portfolios, via BigCharts, click to enlarge..
The world’s best investors – a bunch of otherwise utterly clueless bureaucrats – decides to invest in stocks. Their timing will probably prove as impeccable as ever.
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A Tangled Web
We’ve devoted a good deal of the Diary to chronicling the tangled web of finance woven by central planners. We see curiosities aplenty – the sort people get up to when they have access to free money.
It is against the law to manipulate stocks. But the Fed does it in broad daylight, lowering interest rates on bonds to increase the relative value of future earnings streams for the stock market (no matter how trickly and unreliable).
