WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week on big world supplies and low world prices. USDA said in its outlook forum that planted area should be about 47 million acres, from 49.6 million this year. Yields were increased, so production was pushed to 1.9 billion bushels, and ending stocks were pushed higher to 769 million bushels. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 542 and 522 March. Support is at 556, 550, and 544 March, with resistance at 584, 592, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 560, 554, and 548 March, with resistance at 595, 611, and 619 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 648, 642, and 636 March, and resistance is at 671, 680, and 689 March.
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week despite strong demand for export as USDA showed increased production potential and increased ending stocks ideas in its Outlook Forum. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1889, 1919, and 1932 March.CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week and Oats were higher. USDA estimated planted area for Corn at 91.0 million acres, from 94.6 million last year. Yields were trendline and high, so production held at 15.040 billion bushels and ending stocks were pushed higher to 2.632 billion bushels. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News: Japan bought 155,0o0-0 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 414 and 410 March. Support is at 414, 411, and 408 March, and resistance is at 429, 437, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 371, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 402 March.SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week and trends started to turn down on the daily charts. USDA showed increased planted area at its Outlook Forum at 87.5 million acres, from 83.6 million last year. Yield estimates were high at 52.0 bushels per acre and production was also high at 4.505 million bushels. Ending stocks were projected at 435 million bushels, from 315 million forecast for this year. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 228,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1156, 1144, and 1132 March, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1207 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 338.00, 335.00, and 332.00 March, and resistance is at 347.00, 356.00, and 359.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4530, 4490, and 4430 March, with resistance at 4650, 4770, and 4850 March.CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on price action in Chicago. Futures were lower again today as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 578.00, 589.00, and 592.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3760, and 3700 May, with resistance at 3850, 3880, and 3910 May.More By This Author:
Grains Report – Tuesday, Feb. 20
