After breaking through the 5,000 milestone to set a new record high last week, the S&P 500 (Index: ) retreated from that lofty level. The index dropped 0.4% from last week’s close to end the trading week at .You wouldn’t think it from that description, but the S&P 500 did manage to eke out a new record high of 5,029.73 on Thursday, 15 February 2024. But the bigger news of the week was the stock market’s response to two reports about inflation in the U.S. The on the Consumer Price Index a 1.4% drop on Tuesday, 13 February 2024. The on the Producer Price Index a half percent decline on Friday, 16 February 2024.Both reports indicated higher-than-expected inflation to start 2024. Together, that new information affected investor expectations for the timing of when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2024. The CME Group’s ‘s projections of when the Fed is expected to start a series of rate cuts has shifted. It now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), six weeks later than previously anticipated.Here is this week’s of the ‘s alternative futures chart.Looking forward, we’re coming up on a several week long period where the echoes of past volatility in stock prices affect the dividend futures-based model’s projections. This situation arises because of the model’s use of historic stock prices as the base reference points from which its projections are developed. The next update for the chart will feature a new redzone forecast range to account for this echo effect.In the meantime, here are the market-moving headlines for the week that was.Monday, 12 February 2024
- Job cuts spill beyond tech sector
- Real estate pain for US regional banks is piling up, say investors
- Oil settles little changed; demand concerns offset Middle East tensions
- Rising Distress in Germany Signals a Lot More Struggles Ahead
- German commercial property prices post biggest-ever drop, data shows
- Euro zone banks face new slate of risks, supervisor warns
- Nasdaq slips from near all-time high, Dow up modestly ahead of inflation data
Tuesday, 13 February 2024
- Rising rents push US inflation higher; rate cuts still expected in 2024
- Labor worries, costs drag small business sentiment down by most in 13 months -NFIB
- Oil up on geopolitical tension, gains capped by fading Fed rate-cut hopes
- Number of US farms falls and size increases, census shows
- Number of rate cuts will depend on inflation data, ECB’s Lane says
- Germany is an unfit man, economy isn’t in shape, finance minister says
- Dow posts worst day in nearly a year, Nasdaq and S&P also slide on hot CPI data
Wednesday, 14 February 2024
- Oil falls by more than $1/bbl on US crude build, security threat worries
- Cisco to cut more than 4,000 jobs, lowers annual revenue forecast
- Frigid temperatures chill US retail sales, factory production
- Fed’s Barr: ‘Bumpy’ path to 2% inflation means soft landing jury still out
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Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world’s third-biggest economy
- Japan Q4 GDP unexpectedly contracts due to weak domestic demand
- Japan Enters Recession With Nikkei About To Hit All Time High
- Euro zone Q4 GDP confirmed flat q/q, up 0.1% y/y
- ECB needs ‘some time’ before cutting rates: de Guindos
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Wall Street ends higher, lifted by Uber, Lyft and Nvidia
- Nvidia market cap threatens Alphabet after overtaking Amazon
- Uber hits record high after unveiling first-ever $7 bln share buyback
- Lyft CEO apologizes for the typo that sent the company’s stock up 67%
Thursday, 15 February 2024
- Oil slips after large US crude stock build
- Fed’s Bostic: More time needed to weigh prospect of rate cut
- Explainer: European banks and their $1.5 trillion commercial property headache
- ECB policymakers push back on hasty rate cuts even as inflation falls
- ECB must avoid hasty rate cut, says Lagarde
Friday, 16 February 2024
- Strong services price increases lift US producer inflation in January
- Oil edges up as geopolitical tensions offsets weaker IEA demand outlook
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Fed seen taking time on rate cuts amid inflation pressures
- Fed needs time, data, patience on inflation fight: Daly
- Fed’s Bostic open to summer time rate cut – CNBC
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Fed’s Barr says supervisors more aggressive, honing in on interest rate risk
- US Federal Reserve releases scenarios for 2024 bank ‘stress tests’
- BOJ’s Ueda keeps pledge to review stimulus when inflation goal met
- Euro zone’s low productivity may slow inflation’s fall – ECB’s Schnabel
- Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end lower after hot PPI data; Wall Street snaps five-week win streak
The ‘s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) declined to +2.9% from last week’s estimate of +3.4%.More By This Author:So Goes China’s Economy, So Goes Atmospheric Carbon DioxideTotal U.S. Trade With World Shrank In 2023 Winter 2023 Snapshot of the Future for S&P 500 Dividends
