(Click on image to enlarge)
Today the BLS reported jobs rose by 333,000 in January but employment fell by 31,000. Revisions are massive so I will cover them first then do my normal jobs report shortly.BLS Revisions
Effective with data for January 2024, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the population base year, typically the last decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics, and improvements in estimation methodology. In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2023 and earlier months.
The adjustments decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 625,000, the civilian labor force by 299,000, employment by 270,000, and unemployment by 28,000. The number of people not in the labor force decreased by 326,000. The total unemployment rate, employment-population ratio, and labor force participation rate were unaffected.
Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time.
Let’s start with that last sentence. For January of 2023, the BLS revised jobs lover by 234,000. Yet, the as revised monthly change was +10,000. This implies a huge negative revision to December of 2022 that we do not see.For 2023, the BLS revised jobs significantly lower for the first half of the year but tapering off towards December. The result was a huge month-over-month upward revision to December from +216,000 to +333,000.Meanwhile, the BLS also tells us (next chart) that employment in December fell by 270,000.
Employment Revisions to December 2023(Click on image to enlarge)
Whereas the BLS revised Jobs for December by +333,000 (previous chart), the BLS revised employment for December by -270,000.Adjusted for population changes, the actual reported impact to employment in January of 2024 was -31,000 rather than the negative cumulative change of -270,000.Smoothing this all out in one big bang, we see jobs up by 333,000 in January with employment down by 31,000. The way the BLS handles the data in one big bang makes year over year comparisons bogus.
Massive Ongoing DiscrepancyThe massive discrepancy between jobs and employment continues. Revisions make it worse but due to reporting practices we cannot see actual month-by-month totals.However, data continues to suggest the discrepancy is very suggestive of people working extra part time jobs to make ends meet or to fill spots by boomer retirements.
Quits Tell the Real StoryOn January 30, I commented I will cover the as reported data in my next post. Here’s a teaser. Full time employment is below the level in February of 2023!More By This Author:ISM Manufacturing Still Contracting But New Orders Turn PositiveAmusing Pavlov’s Dog Market Response To The Fed’s Perceived Message The Fed Intends To Move Carefully On Interest Rate Cuts
