EUR/USD Nov. 26 – In high range on USD weakness

EUR/USD maintains its high range following the drop in US consumer confidence and the lack of persuasion following the US GDP upgrade. The market tilted against the dollar’s favor. And now, we have a very busy US release schedule, as some data is brought forward due to Thanksgiving tomorrow. Can the pair recapture 1.25 or is it set to slide?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

• Asian session: The pair traded steadily under 1.2570, and fell in the European session.
• Current range: 1.2440 to 1.25.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2440, 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
• Above: 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
• 1.25 is key resistance and a round number
• 1.2360 is the multi-year low the double bottom.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German Import Prices. Exp. -0.3%, actual -0.3%.
• 13:30 US jobless claims. Exp. 287K.
• 13:30 US durable goods orders. Exp. -0.4%, core orders exp. +0.5%.
• 13:30 US Core PCE PRice Index. Exp. +0.1% m/m, last y/y +1.5%.
• 13:30 US Personal Spending. Exp. +0.4%. last y/y
• 13:30 US Personal Income +0.4%
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 63.1 points.
• 14:55 US Revised US Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 90.2 points.
• 15:00 US New home sales. Exp. 471K. See how to trade the event with USD/JPY.
• 15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. +0.9%.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Unconvincing US data: While US GDP growth was actually revised to the upside, to 3.9%, the components are still not convincing enough: consumer spending is at 2.2% and inventory buildup now means payback later on. The bigger blow came from the disappointing CB Consumer Confidence. This kept the greenback depressed.
• Busy US schedule: Durable goods orders impact Q4 GDP numbers, jobless claims are part of the US labor picture and the Core PCE Price Index is the inflation number eyed by the Fed. These are all released at once. If they all go in one direction, we’ll probably get a strong move before Thanksgiving. And the last batch of housing data consists of the most important and forward looking one: new home sales. Hold tight.
• Draghi drag: The president of the ECB hit the euro hard once again. While most of his comments reiterated previous wordings, there was a sense of urgency. This sent the pair to form a double bottom at 1.2360.
• Confident Germans: The IFO figure bounced from the lows, showing more confidence among businesses, along the lines seen with the bounce in the ZEW number. This contradicts PMIs and offers some hope, especially for those trading the euro as a proxy for Germany.

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