How Is Canadian Wage Growth Stacking Up To Inflation?

A question regarding inflation-adjusted Canadian wages came up on Twitter yesterday. So, let’s crunch some numbers.Average Hourly Data and CPI Index from Statistics Canada, real calculation by Mish Average Hourly Wage Chart Notes

From July 2007 through November of 2023 nominal wages rose from $17.43 to $34.28. That’s a 96.7 percent rise.

From July 2007 through November of 2023 real wages rose from $17.27 to $21.59. That’s a 25.0 percent rise but most of it came between 2002 and 2009.

From February 2009 through August 2018 real wages rose from $20.06 to $20.31. That’s a rise of about 2.8 cents a year.

From the start of the pandemic in March of 2020 until November of 2023 nominal wages rose from $29.88 to $34.28. That’s a 14.7 percent rise.

From the start of the pandemic in March of 2020 until November of 2023 (dashed arrow) real wages fell from $21.87 to $21.59. That’s a decline of 1.3 percent.

Backing up slightly to January of 2020, real wages rose a total of 2.1 percent over 3 years 10 months, a bit over 1/2 percent per year, again all of it was early.

From January 2021 until November of 2023 (solid arrow) real wages fell from $22.25 to $21.59. That’s a decline of 3.0 percent.

You can pick starting points to bend things positive or negative but the overall chart speaks for itself.Average Hourly Wage Change DetailData is from Statistics Canada, calculations by Mish Detail Calculation Notes

I used average wages, computed year-over-year changes, and subtracted the year-over-year change in the CPI Index.

Real wages declined for 23 straight months from march of 2021 through January of 2023.

Canada Avg Hourly Wage Change Real and NominalJuly 2002 through December 2019 Year-Over-Year Averages

CPI: 1.87 Percent (The Fed is Very Envious)

Nominal Wage Growth: 2.81 Percent

Real Wage Growth: 0.94 Percent (The big growth came 2002-2009)

Note the huge covid-related spikes of 10.46 percent nominal and 10.69 percent real. This happens because the lowest paid workers are the first to go in recessions while prices drop.I created the above charts in response to a similar US chart I posted. Someone asked for a Canadian comparison.Trudeau in Dire Need of a Better StoryCBC reports .

Inflation has cooled considerably from its high point in 2022, but it is still higher than most Canadians are used to and the impact of that peak still lingers.

In 2014, a year before Trudeau came to office, Pollara found that 45 per cent of Canadians were optimistic about the future of the middle class. Two years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, that figure was at 53 per cent.

But when Pollara (whose chief strategy officer is Dan Arnold, Trudeau’s former pollster) asked the question again this November, just 31 per cent said they were optimistic.

Why Biden’s Approval Rating Is Miserable in One Economic ChartIncome is rising and so are wages. Even real income is up. But real wages are another matter.Personal income data from the BEA, hourly wages from the BLS, real hourly earnings and chart by Mish. For discussion, please see Note: Personal income includes Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and rental income. Also some people are working multiple jobs.See above link for more details and charts.More By This Author:Red Sea Shipping Update, Maersk Pauses Transit Until Further NoticeWhy Biden’s Approval Rating Is Miserable In One Economic Chart Why Predictions Of When The Price Of Rent Will Fall Have Been Wrong

How Is Canadian Wage Growth Stacking Up To Inflation?

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