The big bulk of US data produces mixed results. Beginning from durable goods orders, we have a beat on the headline but a miss on the core. Jobless claims badly disappoint with a rise of 21K to 313K. The Core PCE Price Index watched by the Fed ticks up to 1.6% y/y.
The dollar is looking for a direction and it seems to be down.
Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the US economic calendar is very busy. When so much data is released at once, the information can go in both directions, creating a mixed reaction. A series of beats or a series of misses in the data could create a big swing in favor or against the dollar.
Before the bulk publications, EUR/USD traded at 1.2477, GBP/USD at 1.5768, USD/JPY at 117.75, USD/CAD at 1.1255, AUD/USD clinging onto 0.85 and NZD/USD around 0.7836. Â The dollar is lower after the publications. So here goes:
The data (updated):
- Durable goods orders: exp. -0.4%. Actual +0.4%
- Core durable goods orders: exp. +0.5%. Actual =0.9%.
- Core PCE Price Index: exp. +0.1% m/m, last y/y was +1.5%. Actual +0.2% m/m, 1.6%.
- Jobless claims: exp. 287K. Actual 313K
- Continuing claims: exp. 2.35 million. Actual 2.316 million.
- Personal spending: exp. +0.4% m/m. Actual 0.2%.
- Personal income: exp. +0.4% m/m, actual +0.2%.
- PCE (non core) is 1.4% y/y.
Currency reactions:
- EUR/USD was pressured by EZ QE talk but now managed to rise above 1.25.
- GBP/USD was already moving higher and is now getting closer to 1.58
- USD/JPY extends its profit taking, trading at 117.62.
- USD/CAD slides towards 1.1250. See CAD: Hitching A Ride
- AUD/USD already dipped under 0.85 earlier, and is now leaving this level behind, trading at 0.8520.
- NZD/USD is up to 0.7860.
Yesterday’s GDP was a beat but consumer confidence disappointed. The word mixed is the keyword here.
And this isn’t all for the day. We have an important housing figure: see how to trade the US new home sales with USD/JPY.
More:
- EUR/USD: Sell At 21d MA; USD/JPY: Buy At Key Support – Credit Suisse
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Pivot Points, TA Nov. 26 2014
