(Click on image to enlarge)While the Fed is done hiking rates for this cycle, in his press conference on Wednesday due to the strong recent moves in financial markets. But that may depend on the November CPI report due out Tuesday at 8:30 am EST. – not some perfect measure of inflation – so I have no idea what the number will be or the short-term market reaction.But inflation is dead: as are along with just about everything else. Therefore, the top is in for yields and the real wager now is whether you think all the previous hiking will cause the economy to roll over into recession in 2024 or there will be a soft landing. If you believe the former like me, I think long-term yields can go much lower and the Long Term Treasury ETF () will continue to rip.(Click on image to enlarge)The other thing on my radar this week is a possible membership fee increase when Costco () reports earnings on Thursday afternoon. but I see no reason not to do it after solid and sales – unless they started rolling over in November. COST is quite expensive (~40x my FY24 EPS estimate) but I like its high quality and defensive characteristics and will likely continue to hold until they do inevitably raise the membership fee which may result in a short-term blow-off top.More By This Author:A Tale Of Two Markets: The Magnificent 7 And All The RestSmall Caps Break Out, Powell May Try To Talk The Market Down, Buffett’s One WeaknessCRM Is Not A Growth Stock Anymore
The Week Ahead: Nov CPI & The Fed, COST Earnings: A Membership Fee Increase?
