Neutrality and jitters describes the undertone of this market. Fragility going into December has been our expectation as a part of ‘reasonable’ progression with a bullish outcome into early 2024, presuming geopolitical or variables in the financial realm don’t intervene. S&P stretching pending a probable dip.
Some risk has come off-the-table for the smaller stocks, but that doesn’t mean they won’t shuffle and even stutter during a first-half of December pause, if we get that. It’s a conundrum for those desiring tax-losses, as well as embracing the very same stocks for presumed improvement in early 2024.
That’s a reason for the mixed action now, as aside retirement accounts which generally don’t have tax implications until funds are withdrawn in older age, it may be that some preceding selling (even back in October) occurred so that a position could be replaced without violating the 30-day ‘wash-sale’ rule. That would actually be an upside argument for December re-accumulation, which is conceivable, while some of the ‘mega-caps’ actually consolidate for awhile.
Market X-Ray: Mundane session with selective gains and losses. The Index continues to swing based on the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ mostly. All the rest either respond to individual news (not much of importance today), or just meander. So the S&P hovers in this extended area, should be exhausting.The big news was after the close: Mark Cuban selling ‘control’ of the Dallas Mavericks to the Adelson family. So, while Shelly’s family will own a majority, Mark will keep a minority and still run the team! Unusual arrangement: Mark gets a ton of bucks into his pocket, and still gets to run the team and games. Is this a hint of eventually this or a spin-off team moving to Las Vegas? Long time rumors suggest an appetite for an NBA expansion team in Vegas.A tiny birdie is whispering that the Fed might cut rates ‘early in 2024’. Just that alone can limit pullback behavior in December’s first half, so keep it in mind. It is also notable to hear more (justified) rumors that Apple wants to cut the deal with Goldman-Sachs, who is losing money with AppleCard, and likely move it to American Express, but there are no specifics or confirmation on any of it.It’s illogical to chase the expensive stocks, and I won’t take time to review all the reasons ‘why’. Holding them where underlying established fundamentals, and a taxable (if sold) long-term gain if they were sold, is another story. That is why most of us that hold big-cap stocks for a few years (or even longer) as what I call a ‘core’ portfolio (Chevron, AMD, Apple and a couple other are an example around here), while speculating for more than entertainment, in just a handful of speculative stocks, generally doing nothing for the moment.
Bottom-line: the market is bolstered by expectations of rate-cuts next year, but nervous about business on a shorter-term basis. Mostly S&P just ahead of where it needs to be, while the rest of the market continues languishing.More By This Author:Market Briefing For Tuesday, Nov. 28 Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 27 Market Briefing For Tuesday, Nov. 21st
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Nov. 29
