Oil price declines, along with a slight mortgage rate dip, took center-stage in Wednesday’s market, which managed to hold together, but nothing exciting.
The Oil action should find price support about now, and again the Federal Government should buy Crude to re-stock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, instead of chasing price later. In the in the meantime the projected drop (we clearly disagreed with those calling for 120/150 Oil based on what’s known recently) will help the inflation fight, and sets-up the S&P for higher later too, regardless of near-term behavior (which can be a process, but not a calamity).
As to ‘post-war’ governance…which must be contemplated now, since the overrun of Hamas might be completed within days (unsure if wishful thinking).Anyway, the role and function of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership has come into sharper focus as the situation in the West Bank escalates. And it’s a reason why Israel’s Netanyahu has plenty of opposition in Israel itself, given many Israelis to prefer to separate Hamas from others. Not everyone is extreme religious zealots, the Israeli majority actually are not.Two days after the Nov. 4 meeting in Amman between regional foreign ministers and US Sec’y. of State Antony Blinken, a Jordanian columnist told a meeting of senior journalists and editors, that Arab foreign ministers had insisted ‘to’ Blinken that there is no option for Palestinian leadership in the West Bank and Gaza except for the PLO leadership in Ramallah, oh these days the ‘PA’.We’ll see, but for the moment the rumored deal to release about 50 hostages fell apart, and that’s probably why you have only brief pauses, no ceasefire, at the same time it should be pending any day now, and well…release hostages.
‘Market X-ray’: No primary shift, and sort of high-level indecision…pending. It is notable that the leadership is unchanged (mega) and S&P held despite one of the Fed members (as usual for her) sounding a bit hawkish.Thursday remains on-top of key resistance, but only nominally. I’ve got a few appointments during the day, so aside a morning comment won’t be available. If I return in-time for LightPath’s () Conference Call, I’ll monitor that, but really do not expect any production or accretive revenue from their new projects yet. It really must happen in 2024, as I suspect everyone’s patience is stretched, even with the new (improved) management and pending military and ‘braking’ projects that we’ve heard about (including space-based). It’s all taking time.
I’m pleased to hear so many ‘reluctant bears’ still fearful of yet-higher rates, at the same time they talk of the consumer ‘not’ being able to hold up. Well that’s not a likely combination. There are always tactical considerations, and surely consumers are pressed (credit card debt and delinquencies attest to that). At the same time that’s why the Fed ‘probably’ is finished, despite Messer’s hawk talk today, but that’s her nature. Mortgage rates are notching down, it matters.And yes, I like this because it says many remain paralyzed by concerns. I do share some concerns, but the difference is that I thought one had to buy amid the semi-panic of October than was possibly heightened by concurrent war in the Middle East, and technical breakdown that was a outlined washout set-up.And of course there’s geopolitical risk, and we don’t yet know if it diminishes, as may or may not be related to Israel’s victory over Hamas. And I noticed the disconnect between President Biden answering ‘yes’ when asked about doing a 3-day pause, while Sec’y. of State Blinken honed closer to ‘pauses only’ lest the terrorists release hostages. Blinen’s view could be surmised as ‘let’s not of course snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory’ by ceasing fire too soon. I am convinced that’s Israel’s perspective, and makes sense at this point. Bottom-line: No change in overall assessment.More By This Author:
Market Briefing For Thursday, Nov. 9
