One of free forex signals for this week is EUR/GBP. We have a buy on the instrument. Here’s the background to help you get a handle on whether the signal is one you wish to action.
Traders will be keenly watching what the Bank of England has to say when it reports from its monetary police committee meeting on Thursday.
As far as interest rate policy and asset purchasing stance is concerned, no change is expected. But it is shifts in the language around inflation that will have everyone all ears.
For a steer on the BoE’s collective thinking, forex watchers will need to keep an eye on the progress – or lack thereof – of the Covid virus and its now dominant variant form in the UK, Delta, formerly known as the Indian variant.
EUR/GBP forex trading: keep an eye on Covid
But as this is forex pairs we also need to get a feel for what is happening in the eurozone as far as Covid, vaccines and variants are concerned too.
First, in the UK the Delta variant looks to be under control. One sign of that may be the antibodies count, although there is n cast iron proof that it bestows immunity on individuals with high counts, but shows the extent to which immunisation is shoring up protection.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 8 in 10 UK adults now have Covid-19 antibodies. In England 86.6% of adults have antibodies in week beginning 7 June compared to 80.3% two weeks earlier.
Also the size of the queues of young people waiting to be immunised is encouraging.
UK public sector borrowing below forecast for May
One result of the UK’s vaccine success was seen in other data released by the ONS today. Public sector net borrowing was lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast of £24.3 billion compared to an expected £28.5 billion. It also compares favourably with May last year when it was £19.4 billion.
Borrowing was also lower than expected in April.
So the UK economy is sitting fair, but the eurozone is also making progress with Covid, and so far it has not succumbed to the Delta virus in the same way, although Portugal is an exception. However, genome sequencing of the virus is not as widespread in continental Europe as it is in the UK.
With economic activity rebounding and headline inflation in the eurozone at 2%, there is no sign of a wage-price spiral in the eurozone. Housing costs could be a driver of inflation, but there is no indication of that potential driver getting out of hand either.
In the run up to the BoE meeting there is room for EUR/GBP to appreciate.
Forex Forex Signals – Buy EURGBP
Instrument: EUR/GBP
Order: BUY STOP
Entry price: 0.8603
Stop Loss: 0.8540
TP1: 0.8671
Recommended Risk: 1%
Risk / Reward Ratio: 1:1
Signal validity period: Good until cancelled
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