Value investing is gaining popularity by the day. The success of value investors like Warren Buffett further underscores this.
However, this apparently simple value investment technique has some drawbacks and not understanding the strategy properly may lead to “value trapsâ€. These value picks start to underperform over the long run as the temporary problems, which once drove the share price down, turn out to be persistent. There are many value investment yardsticks such as dividend yield, P/E or P/B, which are simple and can show whether a stock is trading at a discount.
However, for investors looking to escape such value traps, it is also vital to determine where the stock is headed in the next 12 to 24 months. Warren Buffett advises these investors to focus on the earnings growth potential of a stock. This is where lies the importance of a not-so-popular value investing metric, the PEG ratio.
The PEG ratio is defined as (Price/Earnings)/Earnings Growth Rate
A low PEG ratio is always better for value investors.
While P/E alone fails to identify a true value stock, PEG helps determine the intrinsic value of a stock.
There are some drawbacks of using the PEG ratio though. It doesn’t consider the very common situation of changing growth rates such as the forecast of the first three years at a very high growth rate followed by a sustainable but lower growth rate in the long term.
Hence, PEG-based investing can turn out to be even more rewarding if some other relevant parameters are also taken into consideration.
Here are the screening criteria for a winning strategy:
PEG Ratio less than X Industry Median
P/E Ratio (using F1) less than M Industry Median (for more accurate valuation purpose)
Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy)Â (Whether good market conditions or bad, stocks with a Zacks Rank #1Â or 2 have a proven history of success.)
Market Capitalization greater than $1 Billion (This helps us to focus on companies that have strong liquidity.)
