TD Research discusses the USD outlook and notes that its direction is the clear driver of the FX markets now.
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
“It is noticeable how the bulls have resurfaced after an extended period of hibernation…We still believe the move hinges on an unwind of a well-populated short USD that reflects a shift in the narrative rather than fundamentals.F
For EUR/USD, TD notes that the key question over the next two weeks is whether the EUR could hold key support around 1.1850 or if it is headed to 1.16.
TD expects the former (1.1850 support to hold), and holds its structural view of a break of 1.30 into 2019.
Trade-wise, TD thinks that this EUR/USD view is probably best expressed through options like EUR/USD calls spreads.
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