EC Thursday Fake-Out – Weak Dollar Props Up Weak Markets

They just don’t appreciate that you get tired
They’re so hard to satisfy, You can tranquilize your mind
So go running for the shelter of a mother’s little helper
And four help you through the night, help to minimize your plight
Doctor please, some more of these
Outside the door, she took four more
What a drag it is getting old – Rolling Stones 

 

The rally is looking a little tired. 

Despite repeated doses of Central Bankster stimulus, we just can’t seem to get a proper breakout over our key levels.  As you can see from Dave Fry’s charts, yesterday’s volume was so low we may as well have been closed yet despite all the “good” news (see this mornings News Flast for details and Futures trading notes) the S&P only made a half-assed attempt at 1,850 and barely held 1,840 in the end.  

Far more significantly, the Dow fell through the bottom of its ever-rising channel and today is make or break technical action at 16,350 (below which we are short on /YM) despite the Nasdaq plowing along to new highs.  The NYSE fell just shy of our 10,400 line (see yesterday’s post) and the Russell tested 1,080 but we just jumped in on the short side at 1,175 – but with very tight stops over that line.  

Oil jammed up to $97 (we’re short /CL at that mark) on news that the Keystone Pipeline will drain 700,000 barrels a day (3.5M per week) out of Cushing, OK, which will allow us to export 3Mbd of petroleum products out of the country – which would make the US the World’s 3rd largest exporter and the ONLY country in the world that imports oil and exports refined product in order to artificially increase prices paid by our own citizens.  

Prices that are, in fact, SO HIGH, that Valero Energy (VLO), our biggest refiner, says it expects to make $1.70 per share in Q4, that’s 82% HIGHER than expectations thanks to the combination of a lower cost of oil and a higher margin for gasoline, thanks to the US consumers cutting back on consumption while the export of gasoline makes US prices HIGHER than they were last year, when we were consuming 10% more gas.  VLO has a plant right at the end of the Keystone Pipeline AND gets a massive taxpayer subsidy for investing in it.)