Ukraine Stocks Hover At 5-Year Lows As Ex-President Warns Of Imminent “Civil War”

Following discussions with Merkel, demands to de-escalate tensions from Barrose, and threats of sanctions from President Obama. Ukraine’s President Yanukovych has gone on sick leave from “immense pshcological pressure.” Despite his exclamations that he’ll do everything for the sake of peace, he blames the opposition for “escalating the situation,” which fits, rather ominously with warnings from former presdent Leonid Kravchuk. As The BBC reports, Ukraine’s first post-independence president warned the country is on the “brink of civil war”. While the Hyrvnia is not collapsing as much as it was (always the silver lining), money is running away from Ukraine stocks stuck at 5-year lows, bond term structure is inverted, and CDS are spiking back to recent highs over 1000bps.

The headlines suggest things are getting worse:

• Ukraine’s Yanukovych Out Sick After Protesters Reject Amnesty
• *UKRAINE’S YANUKOVYCH SAYS OPPOSITION ESCALATING SITUATION
• *UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS GOVT HAS FULFILLED OBLIGATIONS: IFX
• *UKRAINE PARLIAMENT FULFILLED CONDITIONS ON AMNESTY: YANUKOVYCH
• *AUTHORITIES HAVE MET ALL OBLIGATIONS TO OPPOSITION: YANUKOVYCH

Global politicians are responding…

• *OBAMA PREPARES SANCTIONS AGAINST UKRAINE: REUTERS
• *EU’S BARROSO SAYS NEED TO DE-ESCALATE TENSION IN UKRAINE
• *TUSK SAYS NO UKRAINE GOVT CAN COUNT ON EU DEAL IF USES VIOLENCE

 

Ukraine Stocks are hovering at 5-yar lows… (apologies for the Turkish stock chart previously)

And “civil war” is coming

The BBC reports

Ukraine’s first post-independence president has warned the country is on the “brink of civil war”.

 

Leonid Kravchuk, president from 1991 to 1994, urged parliament to “act with the greatest responsibility” as it debates an amnesty for detained protesters.

 

…

 

Mr Kravchuk told MPs: “All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the brink of civil war.

 

“It is a revolution. It is a dramatic situation in which we must act with the greatest responsibility,” he said in an emotional address that earned him a standing ovation.

 

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