The most important economic news this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most significant in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Today we have the estimate for February nonfarm private employment from ADP at 139K new jobs and a TrimTabs estimated range of 125K to 155K total new jobs.
The ADP 139K estimate came in below the Investing.com forecast of 160K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for Friday’s BLS report is 150K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The Briefing.com PAYEMS consensus is 163K new jobs and their own estimate is for a slightly higher 165K.
Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:
| “The U.S. private sector added 139,000 jobs in February, well below the average over the last 12 months,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.Â
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “February was another soft month for the job market. Employment was weak across a number of industries. Bad winter weather, especially in mid-month, weighed on payrolls. Job growth is expected to improve with warmer temperatures.” |
Here is the press release from TrimTabs:
| “Job creation has basically been flat for the several months surrounding this past year-end,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “Neither real-time tax data nor key credit indicators points to the acceleration in economic growth that so many on Wall Street think is underway.”Â
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a research note, TrimTabs explained that it is citing a range rather than a single figure for its February estimate because the impact of bonus shifting last year is skewing income tax withholdings. Many employers paid bonuses that would normally have been paid in January 2013 and February 2013 in December 2012 to avoid higher income tax rates. Some of the withholdings on bonuses paid in December 2012 were not received by the Treasury until January 2013. “Starting the month of March, the impact of bonus shifting will no longer be an issue so we will be able to return to a more specific monthly jobs estimate,” noted Santschi. |
