The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Reportwas released this morning for last week. The 323,000 new claims number was a decline of 26,000 from the previous week’s 349,000 (revised from 348,000). The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, was unchanged at 365,500, a decline of 2,000 from the previous week.
Here is the opening of the official statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,500, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 338,500.Â
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending February 22, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 22 was 2,907,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 2,915,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,927,750, a decrease of 14,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 2,942,500.
Today’s seasonally adjusted number at 323K came in well below the Investing.com forecast of 338K.
Note from dshort: An item today in my local newspaper, the Raleigh News & Observer, makes me wonder about the extent to which the sharp drop in claims might be weather related. According to the N&O, “The head of the state Division of Employment Security says bad weather delayed processing applications for unemployment aid, but the aim is to clear the backlog by the end of March.”
Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.
