Our models are constructed with both fundamental and technical data, and a bull signal is registered when both fundamentals and technicals are positive. A bear signal is registered when both fundamentals and technicals are negative. A neutral signal means that only 1 element of our model is positive. Neutral market signals tend to be ruled by overbought and oversold conditions; the market is range bound. We can be buyers in bear markets as conditions can be ripe for a reversal, so being bullish in a bear is acceptable.Â
Snapshot
Last Update: 3.5.14
Current Fundamental Signal: Bullish
Current Technical Signal: Bullish
Aggregate Signal:Â BULLISH
Duration of current aggregate signal: 7 weeks
The Technicals
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (symbol: BND). The current technical signal is BULLISH.
Figure 1. BND/ weekly
1) BND is firmly above support levels and on its way to a series of higher lows (i.e., a definition of an uptrend)
Fundamental Model
Our fundamental bond model is based upon the direction of interest rates and intermarket relationships with commodities and utilities. The current fundamental signal is BULLISH.
Data used: Dow Jones Composite Bond Index
Back testing date begins: January 23, 1976
Total DJ Composite Bond Index points earned (strategy): 233
Total DJ Composite Bond Index points earned (buy and hold): 250
% of time in market: 40%
Average trade duration: 12 weeks
Number of outlier trades: 0
Performance Metrics
Trade Series
Individual Trades
These are the individual trades from the fundamental bond model.
*CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE
Equity Curve/ Drawdown
This is the equity curve for the fundamental bond model.
Equity Curve
This is the underwater equity curve (drawdown %).
Underwater Equity Curve/ monthly
Profit by Month
Which months are the most profitable for this strategy? This graphs shows you.