Non-Farm Payrolls + 295K, but wages disappoint – USD

Another blockbuster report from the US: a gain of 295K jobs in February. Average hourly earnings rise only +0.1% and y/y at 2% – a disappointment. The unemployment rate is at 5.5%. but this comes on top of a dropping participation rate that ticks down to 62.8%. Revisions are negative, but nothing dramatic.

The dollar is higher.

The US was expected to report a gain of around 240K jobs in February. The unemployment rate was expected to stand at 5.6% and wages carried expectations for a rise of 0.2% month. The previous y/y growth was 2.2%.

The dollar was clearly stronger before the publication.

Data (updated)

• Non-Farm Payrolls:  295K (exp. +240K, previous month saw +257K before revisions)
• Participation Rate: 62.8% (62.9% last month )
• Unemployment Rate: 5.5% (exp.5.6%, last month 5.7% before revisions)
• Revisions:  -18K (a huge +157K last month)
• Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% m/m, 2% y/y (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month +0.5% m/m, 2.2% y/y)
• Private Sector: +288K (ADP showed a gain of +212K jobs, but with a big positive revision).
• Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 11% (previous: 11.3%).
• Employment to population ratio: 59.3% (previous: 59.3%)
• Average workweek: 34.6 (last month: 34.6).

Analysis and currency reaction (updated)

• EUR/USD traded under 1.10 after the Draghi drag. However, looking at the past, we have reasons to suspect that the pair could  EURsee a temporary bottom after the NFP, regardless of the outcome. Update: EUR/USD falls below 1.09 to 1.0870. It could still bottom out from these low levels.
• GBP/USD followed the euro with falling, under 1.52 before the publication. GBP/SD trades now at 1.5140.
• USD/JPY was flirting with 120, and still not picking a direction. Dollar/yen is breaking out of range and hits 120.65.
• USD/CAD was around 1.2460. The loonie is buoyed by a not-so-dovish BOC. Dollar/CAD is up to 1.2550.
• AUD/USD held high above 0.7830 after the RBA surprised by not cutting. AUD/USD is now below 0.78 to 0.7770.
• NZD/USD around 0.75.. And it falls sharply to 0.7425.

Quick analysis NFP cements removal of “patience” – June hike looks real

More: EUR/USD breaches low support after the NFP – but could it be false?

And on the C$: USD/CAD makes a clear breakout after strong NFP

And on the Aussie: AUD hits low support on blowout US NFP

Background

This NFP report is important for the Fed decision on March 18th: it could cement the removal of forward guidance: aka “patience” and pave the way for a rate hike in June. Real expectations may have been somewhat higher after a better than expected employment component in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, but other figures were as expected.

However, freezing weather in February may have weighed on jobs. We could see a tendency to “blame the weather”. 

And regarding wages, we certainly expected them to rise faster. Here are 3 reasons  why wages should rise.

In the fresh podcast, we preview the NFP, talk about false breaks, the Australian and Canadian rate decisions, a potential easing in Japan, the widening gap within oil prices and an update on forex brokers after the SNBomb

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