Headline Inflation Drops, Core Inflation Essentially Unchanged

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI data this morning. Year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.13%, which the BLS rounds to 1.1%, down from 1.58% last month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.57% (rounded to 1.6%), essentially unchanged from last month’s 1.62%.

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted data monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. 

An increase in the food index accounted for more than half of the all items increase in February. The food index rose 0.4 percent in February, driven by a 0.5 percent increase in the index for food at home, with four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increasing. The energy index declined, with a decrease in the gasoline index more than offsetting sharp increases in the fuel oil and natural gas indexes. 

The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in February. An increase of 0.2 percent in the shelter index was the major contributor to the rise, but the indexes for medical care, airline fares, personal care, recreation, and new vehicles also increased. In contrast, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all declined in February. 

The all items index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to increases of 1.5 percent in December and 1.6 percent in January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index declined 2.5 percent over the same period, while the food index has increased 1.4 percent.  More…

The Investing.com consensus forecasts for both headline and core month-over-month was 0.1%. Their year-over-year forecast was and 1.2% for Headline and 1.6% for Core.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.