Maggie Mahar at The Health Beat Blog has been keeping track of the progress made by people in enrolling in the PPACA.
As the “train wreck†called Obamacare pulls into the station it’s becoming clear that some 7 million Americans are signing up to purchase insurance in the Exchanges. Ten days ago I went out on a limb and predicted that we would hit 7 million, if not by March 31, by early summer. Now it appears that we’ll break through that target by midnight.
Seven million was the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) initial estimate, but when the roll-out proved rocky, the administration lowered its expectations to 6 million. Reform’s opponents groused that this still was too optimistic, and before long the consensus estimate fell to 4 to 5 million. (Conservatives, who had helped lower the consensus, then accused Democrats of moving the goal-post to make it easier to claim success.)Â
Younger Americans Join the Pool
Who are these last-minute shoppers? According to the Wall Street Journal,carriers are beginning to report that many are under 40. Today, more insurers confirmed the trend. This should come as no surprise.
We always knew that people in their 50s and 60s would join the Exchanges first. Healthy 20-somethings and 30-somethings who rarely see a doctor would be in no rush to sign up. Why begin paying premiums before you have to?
Momentum Builds
Now, younger Americans are jumping into the pool, and, most importantly, the pace of enrollments is building. Friday, March 28, Charles Gaba, the “numbers Geekâ€Â who has correctly predicted earlier enrollment milestones, wrotewho has correctly predicted earlier enrollment milestones and events are quickly overtaking my ability to keep up.â€Â Yesterday (Saturday, March 29), Gaba hiked his March 31 estimate to 6.7 million, up from 6.22 million earlier in the week.
Keep in mind that, in most states, anyone who gets on line before the March 31 deadline, begins an application, and experiences technological difficulties, can complete that application in April. By the time those late entries are tallied,enrollments will top 7 million. How high will they go? All bets are off.
Some in the Media Downplay the News
