From Goldman’s David Kostin, who first looks back: “S&P 500 began 2014 with a pullback of 6%, repeating its 2013 trend, but then rallied 8% to reach a new high of 1885. The market has not had a drawdown of 10% since the summer of 2012, rallying nearly 50% during that time. Gold and bonds have outperformed stocks YTD” and then forward: “S&P 500 rises 2% in 1Q to hit new high;Â we expect 3% appreciation during next 12 months” In other words, by the end of this week the Market should hit Goldman’s 12 month forward price target.
So far so good, it’s all driven by corporate profitability, the permabull pundits will say (barring the occasional snowfall in the winter). However, there is a problem: based on a Goldman calculation of implied 5-year EPS growth rates for the S&P based on a senstivity for the Equity Risk Premium, for which Goldman uses the range of 2% to 4%, and finds a range of -2% to -9% for the EPS growth rate in the next half decade. Surely enough to send the S&P to 1900 today .
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