Opening Market Commentary For 04-08-2014
Premarkets were about even, flat and directionless this morning. The negative news is that the SP500 closed below 1847 support at 1845. Should the SP500 remain below that mark today or go below 1839 we will most likely see a continuing melt-down that will exceed 10% in the ensuing days.
Large caps opened briefly in the red and within 10 minutes were melting upwards (DOW +0.05%) on low volume and the $VIX remaining in the 15’s. Commodities were also seeing a negative trend at the opening. By 9:45 am the averages had tested the session lows and the BTFDers jumped in with abandon creating a momentary high volume spike reversing the fall. Then the offices Comcast internet connection died!
For 20 minutes were were in the dark, Comcast HAS to Improve their service as the outages occur at an all to frequent regularity. By 10:15 the SP500 was sea-sawing remaining below the 1847 mark on low volume.
Forward guidance has been on the weak side and alarming reports of negative corporate quarterly reports is bothering investors as earning season begins. However, some investors believe the market has now mostly priced in a lackluster earnings, so witch is it Mr. Market?
Small Business Hiring Plans Plunge To 11-Month Lows
Having hit their most hopeful levels in seven years in January, small business hiring plans have collapsed at the fastest rate since Lehman in the ensuring 2 months.
Despite the headlines proclaiming the modest rise and beat in the headline NFIB data, capex spending plans dropped and hiring expectations dropped to lows seen 11 months ago.
We can only assume the small businesses are expecting more winter storms through the spring…
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 40 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
