Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride

DOW – 266 = 16,170
SPX – 39 = 1833 (-2.1%)
NAS – 129 = 4054 (- 3.1%)
10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.62%
OIL – .20 = 103.40
GOLD + 5.80 = 1319.10
SILV + .19 = 20.13

If you want to know why the stock market is up one day and down the next, and not just little moves but triple digit swings – I don’t know. If anybody says they know, they probably don’t. Maybe it’s the Fed, maybe it is earnings reporting season, maybe it’s a strong economy or a weak economy, or maybe the markets are just trying to imitate Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. The one thing we know is that stock prices fluctuate, and over time a pattern or trend develops; right now things are wobbly.

In economic news, the Labor Department said that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped to 300,000, the lowest level in nearly seven years.

The Treasury Department says the federal budget deficit for the first half of the 2014 fiscal year totaled $413 billion, down $187 billion from where it stood at this point last year, as tax revenue surged and spending sank.  In March, the Treasury collected $216 billion in taxes, up 16% from a year ago, helping reduce the deficit for March to $37 billion from $107 billion last year. 

Meanwhile, spending sank by 14%, or $40 billion; military spending has been cut, federal government jobs have been cut, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are no longer a drain but rather a contributor to the Federal coffers. Tax receipts have been increasing as the stock market improved (not necessarily today but remember last year was strong). Also, the economy has been better, not great but better. 

The budget gap last month was the smallest deficit recorded for the month of March since 2000. Over all, the deficit is expected to equal 4.1% of gross domestic product in 2014, down from nearly 10% in 2009, during the depths of the recession. It is the fastest four-year reduction in deficits since the demobilization after World War II.

California is sinking. Scientists estimate that the Central Valley accounts for about 20% of the groundwater that is pumped in the nation. It’s the lifeblood of the flourishing agriculture industry, producing crops from almonds to plums, nectarines and cotton. And the water to irrigate is pumped from aquifers that are not being replenished by rainfall.

The US Geological Survey published a study that found that 1,200 square miles of the Central Valley were sinking half-an-inch per year, but the rate is not consistent everywhere. The town of El Nido, just south of Merced sank almost a foot a year between 2008 and 2010. A foot a year is not sustainable. You can’t really mitigate against a foot a year.