In keeping with the tradition of Chinese data being fully Schrodingerized, not to mention completely goalseeked and fake, moments ago China reported that its GDP for the quarter which ended 15 days ago has not only been compiled and analyzed, but somehow once again it both beat and missed at the same time. It beat on a Year over Year basis rising 7.4%, if far below the 7.7% expected just fractionally above the 7.3% expected, while at the same time it missed on a sequential basis with Q1 GDP growing 1.4% Q/Q, just below the 1.5% expected, suggesting the annualized Q/Q has slowed to a meager 5.7% – a number far below China’s 7.0% minimum threshold target.
Some other Schrodingerian, and just as fake, data:
- Retail Sales beat at 12.2%, above the expected 12.1%, but sharply below the 13.6% in Q4
- Industrial Output missed at 8.8%, below the expected 9.0%, and also well below the 9.7% previously
- Fixed Asset Investment also slide from 19.6% at Q4 to just 17.6%, also missing the 18% estimate, as the capex boom from building ghost cities is slowly grinding to a halt, and finally
- Real Estate development dipped from 19.8% to only 16.8%
In short: a substantial deterioration of the economy, one which was to be expected yet one which can be spun as either bullish thanks to the GDP “beat”, and negatively if the purpose is to make a case for more PBOC stimulus.
And now we look forward to seeing if the difference between the consolidated GDP and that provided by China’s provinces is and summed up is more than the CNY1 trillion we have been used to as of late, since apparently nobody in China is familiar with simple addition.
