Sporadic BullÂ
In a recent (very nice) review the writer described me as a “sporadic blogger†which is, I suppose, nothing more than a statement of fact. It’s nicely circular, though, as the one of the reasons for the infrequent posting was the subject of the review …Â
The book, Investing Psychology: The Effects of Behavioral Finance on Investment Choice and Bias (Wiley Finance), is a review of the current state of behavioral finance for the non-expert – a task born out of hope as much as expectation, I should add, as the subject moves almost as fast as you can research it – and a plea for investors to take care, to avoid the less-than-well-signposted traps. Finance is a world dominated by people whose relationship with the truth isn’t so much tenuous as trivialized. And a bull market attracts bull merchants like no other.
Excessive Bull
Our world is awash in financial commentary. Journalists are at it, academics are at it, financial services professionals are at it, politicians are at it, traders are at it, bloggers are at it … In the extreme it seems like the whole damn world is at it. And the vast majority of what is written is pure, unmitigated bullshit.
I don’t use this term in a scatological sense, mind you, but with the strict meaning that it is comment produced without regard or relationship to the truth.  Harry Frankfurt’s 1986 paper on the topic is the point of departure for any discussion on the subject, and he neatly summarizes the issues facing most commentators on matters financial:
Bullshit is unavoidable whenever circumstances require someone to talk without knowing what he is talking about. Thus the production of bullshit is stimulated whenever a person’s obligations or opportunities to speak about some topic are more excessive than his knowledge of the facts that are relevant to that topic.
