E India, Mongolia, Ethiopia, And Other Africa Investing

Today is a busy Monday what with more press scandales now affecting Libérationin the wake of earlier ones at The New York Times and Le Monde. It is a change from the focus on Murdoch’s right-leaning empire over The News of the World‘s hacking. These days the liberal press is the subject.

But surely a Jewish lady like Jill Abramson could not have had the a Times‘ logo tattooed on her back? Except when they are in a concentration camp without a choice, Jews do not get tattoos. Lucy Kellaway in today’s Financial Times writes that Ms Abramson has a crimson H for Harvard and a black Gothic print T for The Times on her back. (The FT is not a journal of record. Today’s issue says on page 1 that there is an article on page 2 about a controversial Mass Pope Francis plans to hold at the alleged site of the Last Supper—but the article isn’t there.)

India is now being over-weighted by enthusiastic investors worldwide. We strike a few notes of caution for our paid subscribers below. My main concern is that the new masters in New Delhi keep the excellent central bank governor Raguram Rajan in place and not put one of their minions at the head of the CB, the Reserve Bank of India. He can assure global investors of a steady rupee and fighting inflation.

The multinational merger mania continues apace with a new higher Pfizer bid for Astra Zeneca of Britain, based in part of tax benefits to PFE, and AT&T shifting its global assets to better its chances with its bid for NexTV. From Mexico City, Eduardo Garcia writes in senditoncomun.co.mx (now available also in English) that the T deal will hurt Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim because it will sell its stock in America Latina to win regulatory approval for buying NexTV which operates in Latin America.

We report on some smaller but significant moves in Brazil, Israel, Ethiopia and Egypt for our paid subscribers, along with goodies from other exotic places in Africa, India, Mongolia, and Russia. Plus a report on a company looking good which could do even better. Plus another hoard of news from our risky but fun holdings on the London Alternative Investment Market (AIM) along with small caps from Canada and news from Holland, Brazil, Singapore, Britain and Finland.

*Compugen, the Israeli IT drug search firm reported on its Q1 which beat and boasted about its immuno-oncology pipeline, greater US presence, and enhanced financial resources which are also looking good. CGEN sales hit $2.1 mn in Q1 vs a mere $162,000 in Q1 2013 thanks to upfront payments from Bayer Pharma AG under its licensing deal last summer. Heftier R&D spending and stock compensation to its staffers cost $4.157 mn in Q1 vs $3.375 mn a year earlier; it may be time for CGEN, after an insider trading scandal which took out its CFO over the Bayer deal to pay its staff with shekels rather than stock. The bottom line produced a loss of $1.9 mn vs a loss of $3.4 mn the year before. CGEN closed the quarter with cash and on-hand R&D funding of $14.1 mn, up $900,000 from the close of 2013, part from the March issue of new shares raising $68 mn. The time has come for a new direction on management under a new CFO, in my opinion.

*Israel Chemicals (ISCHF, sold) is going to have to change its name. Its top brass is moving away from the Jewish State where the bromine and potash producer at the Dead Sea Works faces higher taxes royalty charges to Israel for its mines. This is mainly to clean them up, but a new proposed tax grab by the Sheshinski Committee of the Knesset (congress) has added to its Ethiopian exodus plans.

Now ISCHF is moving operations to Ethiopia big time. It plans to invest $600 mn in a fertilizer plant to turn Ethiopia into Africa’s potash center. This move, announced yesterday by ISCHF’s parent, Israel Corp. (which also has to change its name), came after ISCHF earlier bought a 30% stake for $25 mn in Canada’s Allana Potash and committed $600,000 to demonstration and training Ethiopian farmers on use of potash and phosphates. We bought into ALLRF (AAA in Canada) on the linkup with ISCHF and sold ISCHF. ISCHF also committed to invest a further $59 mn pending Addis Ababa approvals of its projects, which look like being quickly granted.

The Allana potash mine has favorable conditions like plentiful water supply, but it is over 90 miles southesst from the nearest port. There is no railway and no power station for the project. Now after talks with Ethiopian Pres. Mulalu Teshome’s govt, Idan Ofer, who recently moved from Israel to Britain to escape taxes, contrasted its attitude with that of Jerusalem. Ofer told the press he is ready to invest in power plants but it is not clear if he means hydro, geothermal, or wind. ALLRF is up 6.5%.

*Reckitt Benckiser hit a new 52-wk high (at GBP 51.15) today after it announced a new initiative in its pharmaceuticals business with a nasal spray to treat opioid and heroin overdoses. We assumed that the drug delivery business at RBGLY was for sale after its patent ran out on Suboxone sublingual delivery system for a longer-acting combo of naloxone and buprenorphine to replace heroin. Now it has a new delivery system for overdoses, again avoiding the dreaded needle, thanks to its accord with AntiOp Inc (of Kentucky) for developing a spray to deliver naloxone, and the option to buy it. Using a squirt is less scary for family members, caregivers, or emergency services than an injection. RBGLY mainly makes personal and household products and its pharma business is reportedly for sale or spinoff to shareholders. Now the pharma line has been enhanced.

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