An Airtight Defense

DOW + 15 = 16,737
SPX + 3 = 1927 (record close)
NAS + 17 = 4251
10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60%
OIL – .27 = 102.39
GOLD – 1.30 = 1244.60
SILV – .01 = 18.90

Eight times a year the Federal Reserve gathers economic updates from the 12 districts and publishes the information about two weeks before its FOMC meetings. The data is published in a beige folder, and that is why it is called the Beige Book, although it might actually refer to the writing style. Anyway, economic activity expanded all across the country, with most districts reporting moderate or modest growth. Consumer spending expanded across almost all districts. Tourism was another bright spot and manufacturing activity expanded across the country. Home sales were described as “mixed across the country” even as home prices continue to rise. Labor markets were described as steady. Inflation was tame, with a slight exception for higher food prices in some areas.

In other words, when the Fed meets in a couple of weeks, there won’t be any big changes in monetary policy.

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 56.3%, its highest level since August, from 55.2% in April. That’s the number and they’re sticking with it.

The US trade deficit grew to $47 billion in April, up from $44 billion in March. Exports slowed in April, down slightly to $193 billion. Imports, meanwhile, surged by nearly $3 billion to $237 billion, mainly driven by increased spending in consumer goods and cars.

A new survey from the MacArthur Foundation finds 70% of Americans still feel a housing crisis remains today and the worst is yet to come; that’s down from 77% a year ago, but still it doesn’t look like there’s much confidence in a housing recovery. Half the respondents think housing represents a good long term investment, while 43% says that’s not the case; two-thirds say it’s harder to build wealth through home ownership than 20 or 30 years ago. Over half of Americans, 52%, have had to make at least one major sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage over the last three years.

In line with the survey on housing, a new poll from CNN and ORC International finds 59% of adults think the American Dream has become impossible for most to achieve, up from 54% in a poll conducted in 2006. What’s more, 63% of those surveyed believe most children in the US will grow up to be worse off than their parents. While most Americans say they’re better off than the prior generation, they also feel gains in living standards are grinding to a halt. One problem is that the survey didn’t define exactly what the American Dream is supposed to be.

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