DOW – 119 – 16,818
SPX – 12 = 1949
NAS – 18 = 4350
10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.58%
OIL + .81 = 106. 84
GOLD + .70 = 1320.00
SILV + .03 = 21.03
Let’s start with a couple of reports on housing; the Commerce Department says new home sales increased 18.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 units, the highest level since May 2008. The increase in sales was the biggest since January 1992. Compared to May of last year, sales were up 16.9%.
Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices rose 0.2% in April; the smallest gain since March of last year, with the year-on-year increase slowing to 10.8%.
Today’s reports seem to indicate a strong new home market and a weak existing home market, but that’s probably not quite accurate. Homebuilders are working through inventory, while existing home inventories are low and starting to rise; for existing homes that means we’ve mainly worked through most of the distressed sales that were out there. The housing market is moving forward modestly, but also in fits and starts.
The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence rose to 85.2 from 82.2 in May, with optimism about the labor market. June’s reading was the highest since January 2008. Consumers think jobs are more widely available. The survey found 14.7% of consumers think jobs are “plentiful,†the best reading since May 2008, while the share characterizing jobs as “hard to get†fell to a three-month low of 31.8%.
While government data showed confidence at January 08 highs, Gallup’s latest survey shows, only one in five Americans (22%) say the economy is excellent or good, while 34% say it is poor; and worse still, Americans continue to be less optimistic about the economy’s future: Â 38% say the economy is getting better, while 58% say it is getting worse; the worst differential since 2013. Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index lost another point last week, the third week in a row, dropping to its lowest in over 2 months.
Not much confidence in the equity markets today. I haven’t seen anything earth shattering that would explain why stocks moved from positive to negative territory, and even with the rollover, the major indices still didn’t drop a full percentage point; 119 points ain’t what it used to be. The S&P 500 closed down more than half a percent for its sharpest loss since June 12, after setting a fourth record high in five sessions. Maybe its concern about Iraq, maybe the high frequency traders ran out of shorts to squeeze.
