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Does the crisis, the rise of China or the BRICS, represent a challenge to US in general and the role of the dollar in particular?  I have posted four essays recently that were explored a vexing issue.    I think a dispassionate look at the evidence suggests much of the claims have been exaggerated, and not by the countries themselves, but by economists and some in the media.  Indeed the arguments seem most caustic in the US itself. While this itself may be revealing from a sociological point of view, it is not very helpful in analyzing current conditions. |
1.  Exaggerating the Dollar’s Demise–looks at the potential fallout from the large fine assess BNP for sanction violations  of a number of years and deceit used to conceal it.Â
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2. Â What a GDP-based IMF Would Look Like–shows that based on the size of its economy, the US, despite having enough votes (quota) at the IMF to effectively veto important decisions, is under-represented. Â Europe, not the US, would be the major loser in such an arrangement. Â Indeed, what many observers claim of the US may arguably be more applicable to Europe. Â
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3. Â The BRICS Challenge?–discusses the two big thematic arguments about the demise of the US: Â Lawrence Summer’s ‘secular stagnation’ hypothesis and the rise of the BRICS, and in particular the new development bank. Â
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4.  The Dollar and Yuan:  No Contest…yet–reviews the recent SWIFT data on the role of dollar and yuan in trade settlement.  While the use of the yuan has increased, it is still a minor currency by most metrics. Â
