Another wave of USD sell offs was triggered by the disappointing ADP report. A second month of weak job gains, if see in the NFP as well, raises a speculation that the Fed will not hike in 2015.
EUR/USD was certainly prepared to benefit from this, rising to a fresh high of 1.1294, above last week’s peak of 1.1288 and at the highest since late February. Update: the pair is screaming higher and 1.1335 is the new high.
The greenback is falling against other currencies as well. In addition, EUR/GBP is also reaching new highs.
The next line of resistance is at 1.1373, followed by the almighty 1.15. Support awaits at 1.1270 and then at 1.12.
The US is experiencing too much weak data of late. Not all i bad: both the Employment Cost Index and the Unit Labor Costs released today show a pickup in wages and potentially higher inflation.
But just as inflation is getting better, jobs are weakening. The two Fed mandates just can’t rise strongly together. And in this case, inflation is only a tad stronger as employment weakens. The weaker link is only mildly stronger while the strong link is losing ground.
In the old continent we do not have inspiring data either, but it seems that the turnaround in yields is helping the euro. As profits are taken on German bonds, the shot hedges on the euro are being squeezed as well.
More: Is This The End Of EUR-Funded Carry Trades? – Credit Agricole
Here is how it look on the daily chart:
