How bullish and bearish forces align for stock indexes, forex and other global markets, both technical and fundamental outlooks, likely top market movers.
Summary
–Technical Outlook: European indexes diverging from US and Asia, but no material signs of market reversal, only correction
–Fundamental Outlook, Market Movers: Ukraine events most dominant, followed by EU data as ECB likely to move alter policy before the Fed or other leading central banks
–Fundamental Outlook, Lessons: Data gap between US and Europe, fundamental challenges for each region
The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we cover outlooks for the major pairs for the coming week and beyond.
Technical Picture: Europe Continues To Diverge From US And Asia
We look at the technical picture first for a number of reasons, including:
Chart Don’t Lie: Dramatic headlines and dominant news themes don’t necessarily move markets. Price action is critical for understanding what events and developments are and are not actually driving markets. There’s nothing like flat or trendless price action to tell you to discount seemingly dramatic headlines – or to get you thinking about why a given risk is not being priced in
Charts Also Move Markets: Support, resistance, and momentum indicators also move markets, especially in the absence of surprises from top tier news and economic reports. For example, the stronger a given support or resistance level, the more likely a trend is to pause at that point. Similarly, a confirmed break above key resistance makes traders much more receptive to positive news that provides an excuse to trade in that direction.
Overall Risk Appetite Medium Term Per Weekly Charts Of Leading Global Stock Indexes
 
Weekly Charts Of Large Cap Global Indexes With 10 Week/200 Day EMA In Red: LEFT COLUMN TOP TO BOTTOM: S&P 500, DJ 30, FTSE 100, MIDDLE: CAC 40, DJ EUR 50, DAX 30, RIGHT: HANG SENG, MSCI TAIWAN, NIKKEI 225
Key For S&P 500, DJ EUR 50, Nikkei 225 Weekly Chart: 10 Week EMA Dark Blue, 20 WEEK EMA Yellow, 50 WEEK EMA Red, 100 WEEK EMA Light Blue, 200 WEEK EMA Violet, DOUBLE BOLLINGER BANDS: Normal 2 Standard Deviations Green, 1 Standard Deviation Orange.
Source: MetaQuotes Software Corp, www.fxempire.com, www.thesensibleguidetoforex.com
02 Aug. 17 12.01
Key Points
US and Asian stocks remain in their medium term and long term uptrend, although their dip into the upper half of theirDOUBLE BOLLINGER BANDSÂ suggests a neutral outlook in the weeks ahead.
In contrast, European stocks are in at minimum a medium term downtrend, and they remain stuck in their DOUBLE BOLLINGER BANDS, suggesting more downside ahead. Indeed, despite this week’s modest gains for our sample European indexes, they’ve logged another weak of lower highs and lower lows, and also closed in the lower end of the week’s trading range.
 
Weekly DJ Eurostoxx50 Index, April 28 2013 To Present
Key: 10 Week EMA Dark Blue, 20 WEEK EMA Yellow, 50 WEEK EMA Red, 100 WEEK EMA Light Blue, 200 WEEK EMA Violet, DOUBLE BOLLINGER BANDS: Normal 2 Standard Deviations Green, 1 Standard Deviation Orange.
