Â
Â
Last week, I said that it was time for income investors to adjust their portfolios and adapt to the new reality of cheap oil.
For less-speculative investors, I recommended turning an eye to Europe. This week, I want to expand on that idea and highlight a number of enticing investments across the pond.
You see, most U.S. investors have very little money in Europe.
They believe that the continent is destined for low growth and, to the extent they invest overseas, believe Asia and emerging markets offer better opportunities.
However, as oil prices have just dropped from $100 to $58, that belief is wrong.
In fact, Europe is the main beneficiary of the price drop because it produces so little oil. Thus, Europe should see an economic renaissance in 2015… and we need to position ourselves for the likely stock market rally.
An Unexpected Boost
The European Union (EU) was 88% dependent on foreign oil imports in 2012, up from 76% a decade earlier. That compares with a U.S. import dependency of 30% (and declining).
Thus, the savings in the EU from a $40-per-barrel drop in oil prices amounts to an astounding $250 billion, or about 1.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s one hell of a boost for an economy that’s expected to grow just 1.3% in 2015, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
What’s more, Europe is mostly immune to the negative effects of oil’s plunge that are haunting the United States, including the potential bankruptcy of tar sands, shale fracking, and deepwater drilling companies. These expensive oil sources simply don’t play a large part in the EU’s oil economy.
On top of that, the European banking sector is less exposed to oil prices than the U.S. banking sector.
Of course, within the EU, some countries (such as Greece) are in too much trouble to benefit much from the oil price decline, while other countries (such as France) are so badly run that much of the additional cash will be absorbed by government boondoggles.
