Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted To German And French Taxpayers; Bluff Of The Day Revisited

Dr. Eric Dor, director of IESEG School of Management, in Lille, has an update on bank exposure to Greek debt liabilities.

The numbers are roughly in line with figures I have posted earlier, but the breakdowns and other details are interesting.

The above from IESEG School of management on the Exposure of European Countries to Greece

Exposure of European Banks

The exposure of European banks to Greek public and private debt is most interesting.

Nearly all the liabilities have been shifted from banks to the public. For example the exposure of German banks to the Greek public sector is now limited to $181 million.

German Bank Claims on Greek Public Sector 

The exposure of French banks to the public sector of Greece is now limited to $102 million.

French Bank Claims on Greek Public Sector  

The exposition of European banks to the private sector of Greece excluding banks is also very limited, even if it recently increased for German banks, for which it amounts to $7.885 billion.

The exposure of German banks to Greek banks amounts to $5.702 billion. Their other potential exposure to Greece amounts to $2.912 billion in the form of derivatives, guarantees extended and credit commitments.

German Bank Claims on Greek Private Sector  

The exposure of the French banks to the private sector of Greece excluding banks is limited to $1.646 billion.

French and German banks dumped their exposure to Greece on to the public by dumping assets and also via the EFSF. 

  • German taxpayers are responsible for $41.3 billion via the EFSF, with Target2 liabilities of another $11 billion.
  • German taxpayers are responsible for $31 billion via the EFSF, with Target2 liabilities of another $8.7 billion.

Bluff of the Day Revisited 

Taxpayers in general, not banks are the ones at risk if Greece defaults. This explains the Bluff of the Day: Germany Warns “Greece is No Longer of Systemic Importance For the Euro”.

It’s pretty clear Greece is still of systemic important. What Merkel really meant is this:

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