OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.57%) this morning are down -0.54%, led by a 4% decline in Microsoft, as a drop in the company’s Q2 commercial-license revenue dragged the stock and the overall market lower. European stocks are down -1.18% due to disappointing earnings results from Siemens AG and Philips NV. Another negative for European stocks was the slower-than-expected pace of UK growth in Q4. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.72%, Hong Kong -0.41%, China -0.92%, Taiwan +0.46%, Australia +0.83%, Singapore +0.40%, South Korea +0.82%, India +1.00%. India’s BSE Sensex 30 Stock Index climbed to a record high after Prime Minister Nodi and President Obama reached an agreement that could spur nuclear energy projects in India. Chinese stocks closed lower after industrial profits declined the most in at least 3 years last month. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -0.16%) is down -0.24%. Mar gasoline (RBH15 -0.13%) is down -0.35%. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.10%) is up +0.13%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.53%) is down -1.34%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.22%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.38%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.42%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.10%) are up +5 ticks.
China Dec industrial profits fell -8.0% y/y, the third straight monthly decline and the biggest drop since the data series began in 2011.
UK Q4 GDP rose +0.5% q/q and +2.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
UK Nov index of services rose +0.1% m/m and +0.8% 3-mo/3-mo, less than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo.
Japan Dec PPI services rose +3.6% y/y, unch from Nov and higher than expectations of +3.5% y/y and matched the fastest pace of increase in 24 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Dec durable goods orders report is expected to show an increase of +0.4% and +0.6% ex-transportation, improving from November’s -0.9%and -0.7% ex-transportation. Today’s Nov CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a solid increase of +0.65% m/m and +4.30% y/y, just modestly below October’s report of +0.76% m/m and +4.50% y/y. Today’s Dec new home sales report is expected to show an increase of +2.7% to 450,000, more than overcoming November’s decline of -1.6% m/m to 438,000. Today’s Jan consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +2.9 point increase to 95.5, adding to December’s increase of +1.6 to 92.6. The market consensus is that the FOMC at its 2-day meeting that begins today will leave its interest rate and policy guidance unchanged.
