So far it has been an overnight session which clearly forgot to take its Lexapro, with futures first tumbling after CNBC’s “leak” that a Greek deal had been reached was refuted, only to surge subsequently on both the Riskbank’s foray into NIRP and QE which crushed the Swedish currency and sent its stocks to recorder highs, and more importantly, on the latest ceasefire out of Minsk which has pushed Russian and European assets substantially higher. While only the most naive believe that any palpable end to Ukraine hostilities will emerge as a result of today’s delay, expect for Greek headlines to return with a vengeance as today it is Tsipras’ turn to speak at a summit of the 28 European Union leaders set to begin momentarily.
For now, however, the algos have been delighted to forget the latest Greek disappointment and focus on the utopia that central planners have in mind, if only for the 1%, and send US equity futures surging, and on pace to resume their grind higher to all time highs.
Looking at specific regions, Asian equity markets trade mixed after following suit from a lacklustre Wall Street close, which saw the S&P 500 finish relatively flat. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) outperformed bolstered by yesterday’s sharp fall in JPY which prompted the index to briefly break above the 18,000 level for the first time this year. Elsewhere, both the Hang Seng (+0.44%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.50%) fluctuated between gains and losses, with a rally in the telecoms sector helping overcome weakness across energy stocks, amid yesterday’s oil price slump.
The Eurogroup meeting on Greece failed to come to a meaningful conclusion last night and whilst this was expected amid ongoing tensions, the lack of cooperation between the two parties saw equity futures open lower this morning. However this trend reversed at the open of the cash markets, with stock specific news, such as positive earnings from the likes of Renault (+9.4%) and Credit Suisse (+9.6%), pushing European indices higher.
Sentiment was further bolstered through the morning after a technical break in the DAX future, where a spike took out stops out through the high before the EUREX close yesterday (10800) and the high on Tuesday’s session (10816). The move higher also prompted rumours of a deal being brokered between Greece and the Eurogroup, however these reports were not based on any information of substance. Another contributing factor has been Russia’s President Putin stated that a cease-fire has been agreed with Ukraine and is to start on Sunday (15th Feb).
Elsewhere, Gilts (-60 ticks) are underperforming in fixed income markets on the back of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report, while T-Notes and Bunds are also lower, partially due to equity strength, with US traders await the final Treasury auction of the week in the form of USD 16bln in a 30yr note.
In FX, markets have seen abnormal volatility today, with the key event being the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report in which the MPC members revised down their short term CPI forecasts as a consequence of the fall in oil prices however stated that they expect inflation to rise back above the 2% target in the 2 year horizon. Other factors of the report that were perceived to be hawkish were that both growth and wages are set to increase and spare capacity will be eliminated within 18 months, compared to a forecast of 2-3 years at the last report. This saw GBP/USD climb above 1.5300 to mark the pairs highest level of the week while the EUR/GBP cross trades at 7 year lows.
Elsewhere, SEK weakened aggressively on the back of an unexpected 10bps rate cut from the Riksbank to -0.10%, after 12 of the 18 surveyed predicted that rates would be held. The announcement also saw the central bank state that they are to buy SEK 10bln of government bonds further exacerbating the weakness in the currency. Meanwhile, JPY strengthened this morning after comments from sources claiming that the BoJ thinks any additional stimulus will be ‘counter-productive’, which saw USD/JPY fall by over 60 pips in an initial fast money move to break back below the 120.00 level.
