OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.47%) this morning are up +0.41% and European stocks are up +1.23% at a 6-1/3 year high as stock markets around the world rallied after an agreement on a cease-fire in Ukraine was announced. Russian President Putin told reporters that after talks through the night with French, German and Ukrainian leaders in Belarus, a truce in eastern Ukraine is set to start on Feb 15. Greece’s ASE Stock Index jumped over 5% on speculation that Greece was making progress on debt talks with its creditors. Eurozone finance ministers met yesterday and postponed decisions on the future of Greece’s debt financing until they meet again next week. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.85%, Hong Kong +0.44%, China +0.25%, Taiwan +0.36%, Australia -0.44%, Singapore -0.74%, South Korea -0.28%, India +0.95%. Commodity prices are higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +3.15%) is up +2.62% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +1.07%) is up +0.71%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.23%) is up +0.32%. Mar copper (HGH15 +1.71%) is up +1.79%. Agriculture prices are stronger. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) is down -0.35%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.07%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.56%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.32%) are down -12.5 ticks at a 5-week low.
Japan Jan PPI fell -1.3% m/m, over twice expectations of -0.6% m/m and the biggest monthly decline in 6 years. On an annual basis, Jan PPI rose +0.3% y/y, less than expectations of +1.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 2-3/4 years.
Japan Dec machine orders jumped +8.3% m/m, more than expectations of +2.3% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 6 months. On an annual basis, Dec machine orders rose +11.4% y/y, better than expectations of +5.6% y/y and the largest annual increase in 8 months.
Eurozone Dec industrial production was unch m/m and fell -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims series is expected to show a +10,000 increase to 288,000, adding to last week’s increase of +11,000 to 278,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to edge higher by +1,000 to 2.401 million, adding to last week’s increase of +6,000 to 2.400 million. The Treasury today will sell $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $64 billion coupon package. There are 17 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Coca-Cola Enterprises (consensus $0.56), BorgWarner (0.75), Nielsen (0.80), McGraw Hill Financial (0.90), Kellogg (0.92), Kraft Foods (0.73), AIG (1.05), CBS (0.76).
