I can sense a growing unease as I talk with investors and other friends, from professional market watchers and traders to casual observers. What in the Wide World of Sports is going on? It is not just that markets are behaving in an unusual and volatile manner (see chart below showing multiple double-digit moves in the last few months); it’s that the data seems to be so conflicting. One day we get data that shows the economies of the developed world to be slowing, and the next day we get positive numbers. The ship of the economy seems to be drifting rudderless.
My dad used to say about a situation that just didn’t seem quite right that things were “about a half a bubble off dead center.†(This was back in the days when we used bubble levels to determine whether something was level or plumb – before today’s fancy digital gadgets.)
There is a reason, I think, that everything seems just a little out of kilter. I believe that central banks, in their valiant, unceasing efforts to restore liquidity and growth, have unleashed numerous unintended consequences that are beginning to show up in earnest. Today we are going to review the well-meaning behavior of central banks for clues about our near future.
But first, let me take one final opportunity to invite you to come to the 2015 Strategic Investment Conference. We’ve assembled an amazing cast of speakers who will delve deeply into what is really driving the world’s economy. I have some of the finest experts on China from around the world, central bankers, some very powerful analysts whose work commands the attention of the biggest institutions and hedge funds in the world (and whose work costs 20 times or more the price of my conference). Market analysts, geopolitical wizards, and futurists will be on hand, too. This is really the finest gathering of minds I have been pleased to assemble for a Strategic Investment Conference. Click on the link above and peruse the lineup and schedule. The conference starts in a little over a week, on the evening of April 29, and lasts through May 2 at noon. Between those times we will wine and dine you as you feast on powerful ideas, one after another. You will come away with a much better grasp of our near-term future, including when and how the Fed will raise rates, what will happen to China, how Europe will evolve (or devolve), and what the overall geopolitical outlook for the world is. All in one place with some of the smartest and friendliest attendees you’ll ever find.
