FHFA House Price Index Rose 0.4% In May

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released the U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for the most recent month. Here is the opening of the report.

U.S. house prices rose in May, up 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.3 percent change in April was revised upward to reflect a 0.4 percent change.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From May 2014 to May 2015, house prices were up 5.7 percent. The U.S. index is 1.8 percent below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the April 2006 index level. [Link to reports]

Investing.com had forecast a 0.5 percent increase.

The chart below illustrates the HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

 

In the chart above we see that the nominal HPI index is rapidly approaching its pre-recession peak of what’s generally regarded to have been a housing bubble. Adjusted for inflation, the index remains well off its historic high.

The next chart shows the growth of the nominal and real index since the turn of the century.

 

For an interesting comparison, let’s overlay the HPI and the most closely matching subcomponent of the Consumer Price Index, Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences (OER). Note: For an explanation of OER, see this PDF commentary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

HPI and OER moved in close parallel from the 1991 inception date of the former until early 1999, when the two parted company and HPI began accelerating into the housing bubble. HPI then fell 20.7% over the next 48 months to its March 2007 trough. Confirmation of the “bubble” designation for house prices is the 40.2% spread between HPI and OER in January 2007.