Folks, today I am issuing an official Super Crash Warning. That means we are on the verge of a serious market crash in the near future, which I now predict will hit by summer, June 20, 2016, and it’s not going to be a good one.
It must seem like I never have any good news for you, but it’s my job to see the world as it is, not as I’d like it to be, and what I see is things getting worse by the day:
1. FINANCIAL STOCKS ARE CRUMBLING. U.S. bank stocks have fallen 30% to 40% over the last few months, a very bad sign. Just look at the charts of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)… These stocks are very sensitive to systemic instability. Private equity stocks are getting crushed too – Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE: APO), Ares Management LP (NYSE: ARES), KKR & Co. LP (NYSE: KKR), Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), Carlyle Group (Nasdaq: CG), Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG). I warned you last week about Deutsche Bank (DB) and the coming collapse in European bank stocks – but if you look at their bonds and credit default swaps, the news is even more ominous. The thing all of these companies have in common is heavy exposure to the high debt levels that built up since the financial crisis. The market is telling us that it is very worried that the Debt Supercycle is over and that a lot of this debt isn’t going to be paid back.
2. ESTABLISHED HEDGE FUNDS ARE FAILING. The Wall Street Journal just reported that Orange Capital is shutting down after a decade in business. Meanwhile, Chase Coleman, one of the most successful Tiger Cubs, took a hit of 14% in January. Larry Robbins’ Glenview Capital Management, one of the most successful managers over the last decade, lost an incredible 21% in January after being down 17% in 2015. Bill Ackman was reportedly down double digits again in January after a 20% loss in 2015. For many of the best managers in the hedge fund game, it seems the game has changed. They can’t make money when the U.S. Federal Reserve isn’t pumping massive amounts of money into the system – but that’s because hedge funds were in a bubble like everything else, and the bubble has burst. It turns out that very few hedge fund managers can make money in today’s world (I am happy to report that I am one of them – my own fund made good money in 2015 and even made a profit in January 2016, when markets were blistered with losses).
