E What You See Is What You Get

In an investment strategy report that I produce each week for clients I review the market trends of the four major global markets (US, Europe and Asia, emerging markets and frontier markets) as well as the 10 US economic sectors seeking to identify the established and emergent price trends of each. I evaluated three time periods in an effort to see if there is one cohesive trend that is applicable to all markets and sectors. The data reviewed the market price and its cumulative result in which price over time produces its moving averages and its momentum. I produce these results in the form of a table and, from time to time, reference them in individual charts with comments accordingly. In this week’s report, let’s look at the primary market, the US, in the form of its primary sector, large cap stocks, to see how such analysis informs us as to the trend of the global equity markets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Long Term picture is a mixed one with the Mega Trend¹ (price and its moving averages) in bullish mode while its momentum reading (MACD) is negative.

Ever since price has moved into a sideways pattern since the beginning of 2015, momentum has reflected this with a generally downward bias.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contrary to the long term, the Intermediate Term picture is not mixed at all. While ragged at times, the current conclusion is bullish in the Mega Trend and positive in momentum (MACD).

There have been periods, as you can see, when the story looked poised to turn but while a bearish call was at hand the call had to be moderated by the fact that the long term was not confirming what the intermediate term was saying.